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The fist months of quarter II, value export continues growth but a slow speed up. It concerned a risk of difficulties to complete the aim of export USD 46.75 billion of the years.


The aim of export in 2007 minimum will be reached USD 46.75 billion, increased 20% compared with year 2006. In 2006, total nation’s value export-import reached USD 84 billion, in which value export achieved USD 39.6 billion, increased USD 7.163, correlative increased 22.1% compared with year 2005 and excess 5% in comparison with planned of government. Total value import get USD 44.4 billion, increased 20.1% compared with year 2005. Eliminating a price factor, expanding market has contributed more increased USD 4.222 billion value export.

According to Ministry of Trade’s statistics, on April 2007, total nation’s value export-import reached USD 3.950 billion, raising of total value export on 4 months to USD 14.4 billion, increased 22% compared with the same period last year.

Textile: USD 2 billion “burden”:

Accounting to April, having two commodities excess USD 2 billion are crude oil get USD 2.356 billion and textile reached USD 2.198 billion. The textile industry has a task from Ministry of Trade that “must export excess USD 2 billion compared with last year, otherwise the aim export of nation will be break”. In 2005, textile industry gets USD 5.8 billion. Advantages of abolish quota, expand export market when Vietnam become a member of WTO has promoted textile industry reach the value export over USD 7 billion.

However, some difficulties which appear from the United State’s textile overseeing program has implementing dumping price legal proceedings make more difficult to reached the aim of export in 2007.

Coffee, aquatic product: depend on quality

Remarkable, coffee can near get USD 1 billion, reached USD 947 million. Coffee is a commodity has impression growth during the first four months in the year which on both sides’ quantity and value of export with correlative growth compared with the same period last year are 84% and 134%. This is a first year the coffee industry has record growth in 3 years recently. Due to “hot” export, Ministry of Trade has warned value export in quarter II and next quarter will be reduce because the quarter I is over export. With the export target over 900,000 tons in this year, coffee industry can feel secure when the implementing rate in first 3 months has high level.

Mr Van Thanh Huy, President of Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association[1] said that whether supply source of good have not much, but enterprises will have a chance export of good price, because world demand will be increased. “No longer phenomenon enterprises sell all the same time, they have considered and follow world sell price” – Mr Huy said. However, all risks have still remain implicit when a big challenged which enterprises have acquired is that export coffee quality, low processing coffee export.

Aquaculture industry has a same warned, especially export quality. Whether this industry have an advantages on price and market, reached USD 1.036 billion in first 4 months 2007, but if enterprises and government have not solved difficulties relating aquaculture quality export to Japan, a danger not to complete the plan USD 3.8 billion of this industry could be happened.

A slow speed up of rice export

In 2005, value of rice export was over USD 1 billion. End of the year, due to epidemic diseases situation, government has stopped export rice. This cause has strongly effected to export value of beginning months of the year 2007. According to Ministry of Trade’s statistics, at the end of quarter I-2007, export rice only reached 710,000 tons with value USD 230 million, decreased to 43.3% on quality and 33% value compared with the same period last year. Rice export in 4 months only reached 1.4 million tons with value USD 443 million.

According to reflection of rice enterprises, one of the caused making difficult for enterprises is quantity of rice inventory at the end of the year 2006 has not much, price mechanism of Vietnam Food Association is inflexible that make enterprise be passive. “Time for negotiating price need to longer than present in order to avoid a situation has just negotiate, enterprises have received new price, not suitable with reality” – representative of SATRA said.

However, count only in April, export rice has sharply increased and it wills a good factor to promote export in the coming time. Experts said that export potential in the future is good because nation has signed export contract with good price and large quantity to traditional market like Philippines, Indonesia, Cuba, Malaysia, and Japan

Compared with the government target, the rice export industry remains 1 million ton to reach the target. Therefore, target of rice export can calculate.

Like this, after going 1/3 time, due to the value of export has remained growth, but has not reach as they expected. Average month value export has increased but not to reach the expectation USD 3.96 million per month, which the lowest value to attain the target USD 46, 75 billion of a year.

However, experts said the export normally goes slowly in the initial months of the year and accelerates in the last months. The four-month export revenues, in spite of slow growth, were still over 20 per cent higher than the same period last year. Especially, the April growth was very strong compared with the earlier months.


[1] According to Youth: htpp://www.tuoitre.com.vn

Trang Nhung (www.agro.gov.vn)

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